2011年生猪价格持续高涨的原因分析和建议 黄明
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 26.4pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">今年</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">6</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">月份全国居民消费价格指数同比上涨</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">6.4%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">，其中猪肉价格上涨</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">57.1%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">，是成为</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">CPI</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">同比大幅度上涨的主要推手。高涨的</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">CPI</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">引起了各级政府和中央领导的高度重视。我局根据省物价局年度农产品成本调查工作安排，和市领导对我局的要求。在</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">7</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">月上旬，对我市新罗区</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">2011</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">年上半年大规模生猪饲养成本、收益情况及变化原因等进行了调查和分析：</span></p><p style="TEXT-INDENT: 26.4pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">一、上半年大规模生猪饲养成本、收益调查的情况</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 26.4pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">据对我市新罗区</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">4</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">个大规模生猪饲养场的调查，</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">2011</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">年上半年出栏生猪</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">14414</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">头，平均每头生猪投入产出情况如下表：</span></p>
<p align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">每头出栏生猪基本情况表</span></p>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">项<span><span> </span></span>目</span></b></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">2011</span></b><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">年上半年</span></b></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">2010</span></b><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">年上半年</span></b></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">增减额</span></b></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">增减比例</span></b></p></td></tr>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">一、产量（公斤）</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">117.13</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">111.90</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">5.23</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">4.67%</span></p></td></tr>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">二、出售价格（元<span>/</span>公斤）</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">15.88</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">10.48</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">5.40</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">51.53%</span></p></td></tr>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">三、产值（元）</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">1860.55</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">1173.03</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">687.52</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">58.61%</span></p></td></tr>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">四、总成本（元）</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">1461.35</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">1109.98</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">351.37</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">31.66%</span></p></td></tr>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">五、净利润（元）</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">399.20</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">63.04</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">336.16</span></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 16pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">533.25%</span></p></td></tr></tbody></table>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">以上调查数据显示，与上年同期相比，</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">2011</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">年上半年生猪饲养由于出栏价格不断走高，主产品产值大幅增加，从而使净利润呈数倍上升。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">二、成本构成情况</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">2011</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">年上半年平均每头生猪饲养总成本为</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">1461.35</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元，其中：直接费用为</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">1394.12</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元，占总成本的</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">95.40%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">；间接费用</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">38.19</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元，占总成本的</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">2.61%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">；人工成本</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">29.04</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元，占总成本的</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">1.99%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">。具体情况见下表：</span></p>
<p align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">每头出栏生猪成本费用构成表（单位：元）</span></p>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><b> </b></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">总金额</span></b></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">占总成本的比例</span></b></p></td>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">每<span>500</span>克生猪生产成本</span></b></p></td></tr>
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<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">总成本</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 13.46%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="13%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">1461.35</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 22.38%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="22%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">100%</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 29.98%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="29%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">6.24</span></p></td></tr>
<tr style="HEIGHT: 26.25pt">
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; WIDTH: 34.18%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="34%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">一、直接费用</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 13.46%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="13%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">1394.12</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 22.38%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="22%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">95.40%</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 29.98%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="29%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">5.95</span></p></td></tr>
<tr style="HEIGHT: 26.25pt">
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; WIDTH: 34.18%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="34%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">、精饲料费</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 13.46%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="13%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">855.87</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 22.38%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="22%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">58.57%</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 29.98%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="29%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">3.65</span></p></td></tr>
<tr style="HEIGHT: 26.25pt">
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; WIDTH: 34.18%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="34%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">2</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">、仔畜费用</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 13.46%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="13%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">415.50</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 22.38%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="22%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">28.43%</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 29.98%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="29%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">1.78</span></p></td></tr>
<tr style="HEIGHT: 26.25pt">
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; WIDTH: 34.18%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="34%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">3</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">、医疗防疫费</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 13.46%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="13%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">43.50</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 22.38%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="22%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">2.98%</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 29.98%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="29%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">0.19</span></p></td></tr>
<tr style="HEIGHT: 26.25pt">
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; WIDTH: 34.18%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="34%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">4</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">、死亡损失费</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 13.46%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="13%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">64.10</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 22.38%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="22%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">4.39%</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 29.98%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="29%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">0.27</span></p></td></tr>
<tr style="HEIGHT: 26.25pt">
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; WIDTH: 34.18%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="34%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">5</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">、其它费用</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 13.46%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="13%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">15.15</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 22.38%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="22%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">1.03%</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 29.98%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="29%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">0.06</span></p></td></tr>
<tr style="HEIGHT: 26.25pt">
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; WIDTH: 34.18%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="34%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">二、间接费用</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 13.46%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="13%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">38.19</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 22.38%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="22%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">2.61%</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 29.98%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="29%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">0.17</span></p></td></tr>
<tr style="HEIGHT: 26.25pt">
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; WIDTH: 34.18%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="34%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">三、人工成本</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 13.46%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="13%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">29.04</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 22.38%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="22%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">1.99%</span></p></td>
<td style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0cm; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 29.98%; PADDING-TOP: 0cm; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext="windowtext"1pt="1pt"solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width="29%">
<p style="LINE-HEIGHT: 18pt" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">0.12</span></p></td></tr></tbody></table>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">成本费用中，每</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">500</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">克出栏生猪生产成本</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">6.24</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元，其中不可控的精饲料费和仔畜费用为</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">5.43</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元，占总成本的</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">87.00%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">；医疗防疫费和死亡损失费为</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">0.46</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元，也属不可控成本。两者合计不可控成本为</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">5.89</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元，占总成本的</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">94.39%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">三、主产品产量和成本增加的情况及原因</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">（一）</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">主产品产量增加主要原因是市场生猪价格持续走高，养殖户惜售，延长饲养周期，从而使主产品的产量比上年增加</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">5.23</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">公斤，影响产值提高</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">83.05</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">（二）饲料费用的增加导致生猪饲养成本提高</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">2011</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">年上半年，每头生猪饲料费为</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">855.87</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元，比上年同期的</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">709.56</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元增加</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">146.31</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元，比增</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">20.62%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">。饲料费用增加的原因是：</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">一是饲料价格上涨。今年上半年平均每公斤饲料价格</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">2.69</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元，比上年同期的</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">2.43</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元增加</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">0.26</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元，比增</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">10.70%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">，其中：玉米平均价格为</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">2.42</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">/</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">公斤，比上年同期的</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">2.13</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">/</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">公斤上涨了</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">0.29</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">/</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">公斤，比增</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">13.62%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">；豆粕平均价格为</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">3.38</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">/</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">公斤，比上年同期的</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">3.17</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">/</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">公斤，上涨了</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">0.21</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元，比增</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">6.62%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">。饲料价格上涨的主要原因是由于产量下降和预期进口减少，尤其是第二季度天气转热较快，气温高，湿度大，饲料不易保存。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">二是由于疫病防控，影响生猪生长，饲料用量增加。由于疫病防控，生猪在防控期间生长较慢甚至不长，延长了生猪的饲养周期，导致料肉比提高，饲料费用增加。今年上半年平均饲养天数为</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">170</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">天，以往年相比，生猪出栏周期延长了约半个月的时间。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">（三）疫病多发影响生猪饲养成本增加</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">从调查情况看，养殖户普遍反映今年的生猪疫病较多，母猪产仔率和仔猪成活率较低，据了解，不少地方一头母猪年产出栏生猪不到</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">14</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">头，与往年的</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">18</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">头左右相比有一定的差距，而与发达国家的</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">20</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">多头相比，差距更大。今年上半年，由于年初气温偏低，而第二季度开始又多为高温潮湿的天气，病菌大量繁殖，影响生猪生产。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">一是仔猪成活率下降，仔猪价格上涨。目前不少养殖场断奶前小猪的损失率高于</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">20%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">，即使母猪的数量没有减少，但产仔率和仔猪成活率较低，导致仔猪供应数量减少。</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">7.5</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">公斤左右的断奶仔猪，市场价格从年初的</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">290</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">/</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">头一直上升到</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">6</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">月份的</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">560</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">/</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">头。按目前仔猪的市场价格，若每头出栏生猪按</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">110</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">公斤计算，每</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">500</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">克生猪应摊仔猪成本达</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">2.55</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">二是死亡损失费增加，医疗防疫费居高不下。由于疫病增多，消毒和疫苗费用增加，今年上半年每头生猪饲养成本中，医疗防疫和死亡损失方面的支出达到</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">107.60</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元，占总成本支出的</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">7.37%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">，成为除饲料费用和仔猪价格之外的第三大成本支出，远超过剩余其它各项费用之和。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">四、生猪价格大幅上涨的原因</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">2011</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">年上半年每</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">50</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">公斤生猪平均出售价格为</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">794.22</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元，比上年同期的</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">524.14</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元上升了</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">270.08</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元，涨幅为</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">51.53%</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">。其主要原因：</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">一是全国范围内的市场供不应求，导致生猪价格大涨。由于去年生猪市场价格的回落，不少养殖户尤其是散养户有不同程度的减少存栏和淘汰母猪的现象；再加上今年正月期间温度偏低，病菌大量繁殖，生猪养殖难度增加，仔猪存活率较低，造成今年生猪的出栏量减少。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">二是生猪养殖户补栏积极性不高，影响了生猪的后续供应。今年上半年，在市场生猪价格持续上涨的情况下，母猪价格也不断上涨。由于饲养成本的不断提高，风险加大，不少养殖户担心生猪价格出现周期性回落而陷于亏损境地，因此抱着观望的态度，不敢积极补栏。同时，由于疫病的控制难度加大，使得养殖户对补栏更趋于谨慎。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">三是由于城市化影响生猪养殖场的发展。由于各地城市化的发展，城市周边不少养殖场被拆除。由于生猪养殖的风险较大，不少养殖户在养殖场被拆除后，选择退出生猪养殖领域；而部分养殖户在重新选址和环保投入等方面，较难得到地方政府的支持，制约了生猪产业的发展。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">四是北方生猪产地出栏量减少，导致价格上扬。由于出栏量的减少，作为饲料产地的北方，甚至出现生猪出栏价格高于南方的“倒挂”现象。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">五、生猪后市行情分析及建议</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">（一）生猪后市行情分析</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">据调查，由于短期内生猪市场供应紧张的局面一时难以改变，生猪价格在今年内仍将呈高位小幅波动运行态势。主要原因：</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">一是目前生猪养殖户补栏的积极性仍然不高。与以往生猪价格好时迅速补栏不同，在当前生猪价格出现历史高位的情况下，包括规模养殖户在内，对补栏，特别是对母猪的补栏持谨慎的态度。如果仔猪供应量没有明显的增加，生猪供求关系就没法根本改变，生猪价格在短期内就难以出现明显的回落。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">二是生猪疫病增加且较难控制，养殖风险大，影响社会资金对生猪饲养业的投入。据了解，即使在今年上半年生猪价格行情好的情况下，仍有不少出现疫情的养殖场亏损严重。因此，由于生猪疫情、养殖经验和市场价格波动等因素的影响下，社会资金一般不轻易进入生猪养殖领域。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">三是生猪饲养成本提高，影响市场生猪价格的回落。以目前的生猪饲养成本计算，每</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">500</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">克出栏生猪饲料成本约在</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">4.00</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元左右，仔猪成本约在</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">2.50</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元左右，再加上其他费用，饲养成本超过</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font size="+0">7.00</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">元。在成本高居不下的情况下，一旦市场价格行情回落，又将陷于亏损，因此不少散养户和小规模养殖户处于补栏与不补栏的两难选择中。</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">（二）两点建议</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">今年以来，生猪价格持续走高，加大了老百姓菜蓝子的负担，推动了居民消费价格指数的上涨，引起了各级政府和中央领导的高度重视。据调查，今年市场生猪价格持续上涨的主要原因是出栏生猪供不应求，而造成生猪供不应求的原因之一是受疫病的影响，母猪产仔率和存活率低，导致生猪出栏量减少。由于防疫效果的原因，目前不少规模养殖场很少用国产的疫苗，而宁愿花更多的钱购买进口疫苗。作为生猪规模养殖户，可以承受市场价格的波动，但承受不了疫病暴发的影响。因此建议：</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">一是加强对生猪疫病的防治，尤其是加强对疫苗的研制和监管，降低生猪养殖风险；</span></p>
<p style="TEXT-INDENT: 25.85pt"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">二是大力发展规模化养殖，增强抗风险的能力，避免生猪价格的大起大落。</span></p>
<p align="right"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">（</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt">作者系龙岩市物价局局长）</span></p>
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